Election AnalysisAn interesting read. Highlights:
With current gas prices, healthcare costs, flat wages and the decline in housing prices, many Americans are in an economic vise. So we will see if GOP distraction on race and “values” works this year. There are two problems for the GOP with this tack. The Democrats now lead the GOP on handling the “economy” 56% to 24%, and as the party more aligned on “moral values” 50% to 35%...
Mr. Bush has done such damage to the GOP brand name (a 58% negative rating in the recent CBS/ NYT poll) that John McCain will run far and fast from the GOP label. As Republican Tom Davis said in an internal Republican memo, the GOP brand has the appeal of “expired dog food.” The mainstream media is assisting McCain in this distancing effort by pointing out how unpopular he is with conservatives.
The Obama campaign has to expand the electoral map so the GOP cannot devote undue resources just to defend Ohio. ... Many 2004 red states - Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Virginia and North Carolina - must be seriously contested.