OscarsMy theory is that Crash will win best picture. Why? Because there are enough homophobic old timers in the industry who will just not be able to bring themselves to vote for a gay cowboy movie (that they never watched). But they're enlightened enough to vote for that "anti-racism" movie and thus Crash will win.
I would like to see Matt Dillon win for Crash but I suspect it will be George Clooney for supporting actor. Rachel Weisz for supporting actress. Probably Philip Seymour Hoffman for best actor, even though Heath Ledger may equally deserve it. Reese Witherspoon is a lock for best actress.
Of course, the only one of the films up for best film that I've seen is Crash. I would like to have seen them all but I don't like the theater experience so I usually wait for DVD (which is where I saw Crash). The last time I saw a film in the theater was Harry Potter and a woman next to me screamed at a mildly scary scene and spent the next 10 minutes getting over it. Between that kind of thing and cellphones, food crunching, etc. -- I'd rather wait for the DVD.
I don't plan to watch -- I rarely do -- but I hope Jon Stewart is funny.